The Brexit trade deal vote and Labour's seemingly intractable position

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Labour had a seemingly impossible decision to make regarding the Brexit trade deal vote in the House of Commons on Wednesday 30th December.

Labour leader Keir Starmer is quoted as saying:

“The choice before the house today is perfectly simple. Do we implement the treaty that has been agreed with the EU, or do we not? If we choose not to, the outcome is clear: we leave the transition period without a deal. Without a deal on security, on trade, on fisheries. Without protection for our manufacturing sector, for farming, for countless businesses. And without a foothold to build a future relationship with the EU.”

To me, the words "perfectly simple" are rather disingenuous. Starmer tried to portray the judgement as a binary choice, whereby all other considerations are neglected. That can be seen as clear leadership; it can also be a sign of a leader uncomfortable with conflict. 

Fortunately, there was some public debate on the day:

[Stella] Creasy said in a statement on her website: “Whatever Labour does, the Conservatives will cry foul, suggesting any attempt to scrutinise the deal after it is passed reveals a true intention to fight Brexit. The road ahead will be rocky for all concerned. To abstain is not to refuse to be part of that fight but to refuse to do so on the prime minister’s terms.”

Also, it seemed clear that, whatever Labour did, the bill would pass, as the Conservatives had a significant majority.

Kevin Brennan:

“While I understand the desire to move on I simply don’t understand why it’s necessary for those who believe this is a bad deal to vote for it, and dip their fingertips in this abject failure of national ambition,”

On the lack of parliamentary scrutiny, Clive Lewis put it thus:

“false framing, used to hold this house to ransom”

I presume Labour went through lots of war-gaming of the scenarios, but it doesn't quite seem that way. Their public website doesn't mention the Bill at all, and seems stuck in the 2019 election past:

Within three months of coming to power, a Labour government will secure a sensible deal. And within six months, we will put that deal to a public vote alongside the option to remain.

As with my previously denoted rolling of eyes at the lack of apparent decision analysis leading to the political contortions and distortions surrounding Brexit, I fail to recognise any systematic analysis of the situation. Again, I offer a fifteen-minute Decision FMEA structure as a very sketchy outline, which seems better than what we see in the news:



As we can see, nearly everything under Labour's control is about the messaging and the internal collaboration and consensus-building prior to the vote - it just doesn't seem as if this was done. The ramifications of voting against, or permitting a free vote (or abstention) seem pretty minimal, given the majority that the Conservatives have at this time.

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